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2024 has come to an end and the team at ISDC is already going full speed ahead for what is shaping up to be a year like no other. In 2025, we are looking forward to a growing team, a range of exciting new research projects, the second edition of Fragile Lives, and a new office in Berlin. This newsletter will keep you in the loop as all of this materialises.

For now, we share fresh insights on the intersection of violent conflict and gendered impacts, the social and economic effects of climate shocks, and strategies to build resilience in conflict-affected areas. We also introduce a new team member and share job opportunities.

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Spotlight:

Armed Conflict and Gendered Participation in Agrifood Systems

In a newly published article in Global Food Security, Wolfgang Stojetz, Piero Ronzani, Tilman Brück, and their co-authors examine the interactions between armed conflict and gendered participation in agrifood systems. They analyse survey evidence from 29 African countries to understand the impact of armed conflicts on the labor force, with a specific focus on gender.

The analysis shows that while conflict exposure has a minimal effect on labor-force participation, conflict significantly reduces total hours worked and increases involvement in agriculture. This shift is more pronounced for women, who experience a notable rise in agricultural activity, while men face a greater reduction in hours worked.

What stands out is that the long-term effects of conflict (two years later) are more pronounced in areas where conflict has ended, rather than in areas still experiencing violence, challenging the common belief that the impact of conflict fades over time.

New Papers

Effects of the Intensity and Duration of COVID-19 Lockdown Policies on the Use of Coping Strategies

This article addresses the knowledge gap of how lockdown severity impacts economic behavior in low- and middle-income countries. Ghassan Baliki, Ani Todua, Dorothee Weiffen, Mekdim Regassa, Wolfgang Stojetz, and Tilman Brück examine how lockdowns affected the use of savings, selling assets, and reducing essential non-food expenditure in four African countries: Mozambique, Sierra Leone, Tanzania, and Uganda.

The analysis sheds light on how stricter lockdowns initially lead households to cut spending on non-food essentials like education and clothing. At the same time, longer lockdowns force households, especially the poorest, to spend savings and sell assets.

These findings emphasize the importance of providing safety nets for poor households to deal with income shocks.
The paper is available open access!

Gendered Effects of Climate and Conflict Shocks on Food Security in Sudan

It is not yet well understood how climate change and violent conflict interact in shaping human welfare and food security, how their interaction shapes gendered outcomes, or how social protection systems can mitigate these impacts.

In a new UNU-WIDER Working Paper, Ayşegül Kayaoğlu, Ghasskan Baliki, and Tilman Brück investigate how household food insecurity is influenced by climate and conflict shocks in Sudan, with a particular focus on gender differences.

One finding is that climate shocks do not significantly affect food consumption scores (FCS), while exposure to violent conflict leads to a substantial decrease in FCS.

Dive into the working paper!

Work Permits for Refugees as Social Protection During Polycrises

A pandemic adds to the many existing challenges refugees face, creating a dangerous polycrisis. Drawing on detailed household-level data collected by UNHCR just before and during the COVID-19 pandemic, Wolfgang Stojetz, Piero Ronzani, Sarah Fenzl, Ghassan Baliki, and Tilman Brück analyse the economic impacts of granting work permits to Syrian and Iraqi refugees in Jordan.

They show that during the pandemic, these work permits strongly improved incomes, expenditures, and food security, and reduced child labour and engagement in risky jobs for refugees.

The findings demonstrate that granting access to formal employment is an effective tool for the social protection of refugees, including in times of polycrisis. 

Read the working paper!

Shocking Social Safety in North-East Nigeria

In a new HiCN Working Paper, Wolfgang Stojetz, Piero Ronzani, Tilman Brück, and their co-authors explore the compounding effects of violent conflict and climate shocks on social safety nets in fragile settings.

Using panel data from North-East Nigeria, they reveal that violence strengthens social safety nets only in the absence of simultaneous drought shocks. However, when both shocks occur, social safety nets weaken dramatically, particularly in poorer areas with limited economic resources. 

This research underscores the need for integrated social protection programs addressing the combined vulnerabilities of poverty, conflict, and climate change in fragile regions. 
Read the HiCN Working Paper!

Building Resilience in Conflict Areas

Are agricultural support programs effective in emergency settings?

Wolfgang Stojetz, Piero Ronzani, Tilman Brück, and their co-authors address this question in another new HICN Working Paper. Using a quasi-experimental study design, they reveal that resilience outcomes in North-East Nigeria vary significantly based on local conflict intensity.

Even in areas of high violence, such programs can enhance resilience by improving social safety nets and food security, demonstrating their potential in challenging, insecure environments.

Find out more in the HiCN Working Paper!

ISDC Updates

We're Hiring: Senior Researcher (f/m/d)

We are looking for a Senior Researcher to lead the design and implementation of research projects studying the impacts of humanitarian and development interventions in crises-affected areas including in the Sahel and the MENA regions. 

If you would like to contribute to this research agenda and have strong quantitative skills and a PhD, then we encourage you to apply by 12 January.

We're Hiring: Student Administrative Assistant (f/m/d)

Are you (or is someone you know) interested in learning more about non-profit administration and financial management? Then you should join ISDC as our Student Administrative Assistant!

We're looking for a Berlin-based student to join us during an exciting growth period. The deadline is 2 Feburary.

Florena Montoya Joins ISDC

We are thrilled to welcome Florena Montoya as a Junior Researcher in our Welfare Research Team!

With a Master’s in Development Economics from the University of Göttingen, Florena brings valuable experience from the RTG 2654 Sustainable Food Systems program and Fundación Grupo Social, where she worked on projects supporting vulnerable communities.

Welcome to ISDC, Florena!

Global Impact Evaluation Forum 

Impact evaluations form a core part of the work ISDC does. Sharing our expertise and engaging with others on how they can be designed and implemented to improve programming is vitally important to achieving our mission. 

Therefore, we were happy to be a partner at the UNICEF and WFP Global Impact Evaluation Forum 2024 at the UN in New York this month. Ghassan Baliki and Neil Ferguson attended the event, and presented in a session on novel data approaches.  
Gain insights into the forum!

Conference on Displaced Children

The International Data Alliance for Children on the Move (IDAC) and the Government of Morocco held a 3-day conference on forcibly displaced children and the need to produce quality data to uphold their rights in December.

Wolfgang Stojetz travelled to Rabat to attend the conference and share our work and expertise with the audience of representatives from governments, international organizations, academia, civil society, youth and others

Find out more about the event!

Save the Date: Fragile Lives 2025

The Fragile Lives conference will return! 

We're very happy to announce the dates for Fragile Lives 2025: 30 September and 1 October 2025.

It will once again take place at the Humboldt University of Berlin, and we are looking forward to welcoming you again.
We will share a call for papers very soon, so stay tuned!

ISDC is on Bluesky

For those who do not use LinkedIn and would like more regular updates from our work, ISDC is now also on Blueksy. 

Things to Read

Here's a selection of the most recent peer-reviewed papers from ISDC staff and affiliates:
Armed conflict and gendered participation in agrifood systems: Survey evidence from 29 African countries. Ronzani, P., Stojetz, w., Azzarri, C., Nico, G., Mane, E., Brück, T. (2025)  Global Food Security, Volume 44, 2025, 100821, ISSN 2211-9124,
DOI: doi.org/10.1016/j.gfs.2024.100821. 
 
Gendered effects of climate and conflict shocks on food security in Sudan and the mitigating role of social protection. Kayaoglu, A., Baliki, G., Brück, T. (2024) WIDER Working Paper 2024/75. Helsinki: UNU-WIDER.
DOI: doi.org/10.35188/UNU-WIDER/2024/538-7.
 
Effects of the Intensity and Duration of COVID-19 Lockdown Policies on the Use of Coping Strategies: Evidence from Four African Countries. Ghassan Baliki, Ani Todua, Dorothee Weiffen, Mekdim Dereje Regassa, Wolfgang Stojetz, Tilman Brück, Journal of African Economies, 2024; ejae029.
DOI: doi.org/10.1093/jae/ejae029

The impacts of armed conflict on human development: A review of the literature. Vesco, P., Baliki, G., Brück, T., Döring, S., Eriksson, A., Fjelde, H., Guha-Sapir, D., Hall, J., Knutsen, C. H., Leis, M. R., Mueller, H., Rauh, C., Rudolfsen, I., Swain, A., Timlick, A., Vassiliou, P. T. B., Schreeb, J., von Uexkull, N.., Hegre, H. (2024), World Development, Volume 187, 2025, 106806, ISSN 0305-750X
DOI: doi.org/10.1016/j.worlddev.2024.106806.
 
Gender Dimensions of Forced Displacement: A Brief Review and Introduction to the Special Issue. Brück, T., Hanmer, L. C., Klugman, J. & Arango, D. J. The Journal of Development Studies (2024).
DOI: doi.org/10.1080/00220388.2024.2376145

The Double Burden of Female Protracted Displacement: Survey Evidence on Gendered Livelihoods in El Fasher, Darfur. 
Stojetz, W. & Brück, T. The Journal of Development Studies (2024).
DOI: doi.org/10.1080/00220388.2024.2376402

Short- and medium-term impacts of small-scale vegetable support on food security: evidence from Syria. 
Baliki, G., Al Daccache, M., Ghattas, H., & Brück, T. Food Security (2024).
DOI: doi.org/10.1007/s12571-024-01460-1

Systematic review on the impacts of agricultural interventions on food security and nutrition in complex humanitarian emergency
 settings. Al Daccache, M., Abi Zeid, B., Hojeij, L. et al. BMC Nutrition (2024), 10(60).
DOI: doi.org/10.1186/s40795-024-00864-8

COVID-19 Pandemic and Food Insecurity Fuel the Mental Health Crisis in Africa 
Beck J, Koebach A, Abreu L, Regassa MD et al., International Journal of Public Health (2024); 68:1606369.
DOI: doi.org/10.3389/ijph.2023.1606369
 

Households in Conflict Network

Visit hicn.org to see the full collection of HiCN Working Papers (or submit your own)!

That's it for this edition. We'll be in touch again next month!