Ecological Archives A019-022-A2

Tracy M. Rout, Cindy E. Hauser, and Hugh P. Possingham. 2009. Optimal adaptive management for the translocation of a threatened species. Ecological Applications 19:515–526.

Appendix B. Summary statistics of translocation project simulations.

TABLE B1. Total population size across both sites, the expected mortality rate at the new site, and the number of translocations contributing to learning at the conclusion of the project are recorded (mean across 1000 runs, with 95% credible intervals across the runs). In all simulations the new site is empty at the beginning of the project.

nBt=0

µB

µA

Strategyb

Total population size at time T

E(µA) at time T

Number of learning events

0

0.2

0.2

Active

49.04

(26, 60)

0.2496

(0.1364, 0.3846)

11.756

(3, 17)

     

Passive

49.081

(27, 60)

0.2507

(0.1364, 0.3810)

11.637

(4, 17)

     

d=1

48.803

(26, 60)

       
   

0.3

Active

41.128

(24, 59)

0.2986

(0.1667, 0.4444)

12.537

(4, 18)

     

Passive

40.76

(22, 58)

0.2966

(0.1739, 0.4348)

12.076

(4, 18)

     

d=1

36.06

(17, 54)

       
   

0.4

Active

34.791

(21, 47)

0.354

(0.2222, 0.5000)

12.262

(3, 18)

     

Passive

34.813

(21, 46)

0.3573

(0.2174, 0.5000)

11.785

(2, 18)

     

d=1

29.829

(12, 43)

       
   

Beta(3, 7)a

Active

42.213

(22, 60)

0.3044

(0.1500, 0.5263)

11.660

(4, 17)

     

Passive

43.124

(24, 60)

0.2959

(0.1500, 0.5000)

11.537

(4, 18)

     

d=1

39.336

(14, 60)

       
                   

0

0.3

0.2

Active

39.49

(15, 59)

0.2621

(0.1579, 0.4167)

7.872

(2, 16)

     

Passive

32.71

(10, 56)

0.2726

(0.1500, 0.3889)

7.126

(1, 16)

     

d=1

37.07

(17, 56)

0.2473

(0.1429, 0.3810)

10.457

(8, 11)

   

0.3

Active

23.883

(7, 43)

0.3126

(0.1600, 0.4167)

10.329

(2, 20)

     

Passive

23.666

(9, 44)

0.3132

(0.1739, 0.4167)

7.029

(1, 17)

     

d=1

23.592

(8, 42)

0.299

(0.1905, 0.4286)

10.990

(11, 11)

   

0.4

Active

18.025

(5, 33)

0.3617

(0.2188, 0.4667)

8.572

(2, 21)

     

Passive

20.567

(7, 36)

0.3406

(0.2174, 0.4615)

5.977

(1, 17)

     

d=1

17.234

(6, 35)

0.351

(0.1905, 0.5238)

11.000

(11, 11)

   

Beta(3, 7)a

Active

28.399

(7, 58)

0.3102

(0.1739, 0.4286)

8.113

(2, 19)

     

Passive

28.042

(7, 56)

0.3038

(0.1667, 0.4444)

6.436

(1, 16)

     

d=1

26.586

(6, 51)

0.3012

(0.1500, 0.5238)

10.556

(7, 11)

                   

0

0.4

0.2

Active

35.109

(22, 47)

0.2427

(0.1579, 0.3750)

11.984

(6, 21)

     

Passive

34.078

(9, 45)

0.2489

(0.1538, 0.4286)

11.294

(2, 20)

     

d=1

29.376

(13, 41)

0.2502

(0.1429, 0.3810)

10.478

(8, 11)

   

0.3

Active

21.793

(7, 38)

0.3001

(0.1600, 0.5000)

17.895

(7, 22)

     

Passive

20.855

(5, 37)

0.308

(0.1667, 0.4375)

15.687

(2, 22)

     

d=1

17.565

(5, 35)

0.2975

(0.1905, 0.4286)

10.979

(11, 11)

   

0.4

Active

10.303

(2, 21)

0.3747

(0.2222, 0.5000)

18.173

(6, 22)

     

Passive

10.527

(3, 23)

0.378

(0.2188, 0.4500)

13.693

(2, 22)

     

d=1

10.672

(3, 24)

0.355

(0.1905, 0.5238)

11.000

(11, 11)

   

Beta(3, 7)a

Active

23.186

(3, 44)

0.3075

(0.1667, 0.5000)

14.631

(5,22)

     

Passive

22.82

(3, 44)

0.3127

(0.1667, 0.4444)

12.413

(2, 22)

     

d=1

19.984

(3, 40)

0.3059

(0.1429, 0.5238)

10.559

(7, 11)

                   

20

0.2

0.2

Active

59.336

(54, 60)

0.2347

(0.1429, 0.3667)

15.546

(7, 22)

     

Passive

59.483

(55, 60)

0.2334

(0.1304, 0.3571)

16.456

(12, 22)

     

d=1

54.276

(38, 60)

0.2454

(0.1429, 0.3810)

10.471

(8, 11)

   

0.3

Active

51.475

(38, 60)

0.3012

(0.1739, 0.4375)

21.071

(15, 22)

     

Passive

51.464

(38, 60)

0.304

(0.1852, 0.4375)

21.342

(17, 22)

     

d=1

41.754

(32, 58)

0.3037

(0.1905, 0.4762)

10.982

(11, 11)

   

0.4

Active

40.154

(32, 52)

0.3673

(0.2333, 0.5000)

21.929

(22, 22)

     

Passive

40.235

(32, 52)

0.3669

(0.2500, 0.5000)

21.97

(22, 22)

     

d=1

34.817

(30, 44)

0.3547

(0.1905, 0.5238)

11.000

(11, 11)

   

Beta(3, 7)a

Active

50.074

(31, 60)

0.3053

(0.1500, 0.5625)

18.354

(6, 22)

     

Passive

49.815

(31, 60)

0.3065

(0.1364, 0.5625)

19.092

(11, 22)

     

d=1

43.698

(30, 60)

0.3107

(0.1500, 0.5238)

10.565

(7, 11)

                   

20

0.3

0.2

Active

54.155

(34, 60)

0.2428

(0.1429, 0.3810)

12.901

(6, 21)

     

Passive

53.817

(35, 60)

0.239

(0.1429, 0.3636)

12.863

(6, 20)

     

d=1

49.263

(31, 60)

0.2494

(0.1429, 0.3810)

10.436

(8, 11)

   

0.3

Active

42.462

(21, 60)

0.298

(0.1667, 0.4444)

17.414

(8, 22)

     

Passive

41.937

(20, 60)

0.2948

(0.1613, 0.4375)

16.903

(7, 22)

     

d=1

36.702

(19, 55)

0.2995

(0.1905, 0.4286)

10.989

(11, 11)

   

0.4

Active

31.677

(14, 48)

0.368

(0.2222, 0.5000)

17.643

(7, 22)

     

Passive

32.142

(15, 47)

0.3662

(0.2308, 0.5161)

16.925

(6, 22)

     

d=1

30.454

(15, 42)

0.3512

(0.2381, 0.4762)

11.000

(11, 11)

   

Beta(3, 7)a

Active

43.485

(18, 60)

0.3083

(0.1579, 0.5417)

14.374

(5, 22)

     

Passive

42.435

(19, 60)

0.3072

(0.1500, 0.5333)

14.286

(6, 22)

     

d=1

39.88

(18, 60)

0.3052

(0.1500, 0.5238)

10.546

(7, 11)

                   

20

0.4

0.2

Active

39.851

(27, 54)

0.2395

(0.1613, 0.3571)

11.840

(6, 20)

     

Passive

38.597

(14, 54)

0.2488

(0.1579, 0.4286)

11.320

(2, 20)

     

d=1

33.43

(15, 49)

0.2515

(0.1429, 0.3810)

10.504

(8, 11)

   

0.3

Active

26.665

(10, 45)

0.2993

(0.1667, 0.4615)

18.181

(8, 22)

     

Passive

25.071

(8, 45)

0.3075

(0.1667, 0.4375)

15.885

(2, 22)

     

d=1

21.612

(7, 41)

0.3007

(0.1905, 0.4286)

10.989

(11, 11)

   

0.4

Active

14.692

(4, 30)

0.3742

(0.2143, 0.5000)

18.270

(6, 22)

     

Passive

14.968

(4, 30)

0.3746

(0.2188, 0.4545)

14.659

(2, 22)

     

d=1

14.59

(4, 29)

0.3537

(0.1905, 0.5238)

11.000

(11, 11)

   

Beta(3, 7)a

Active

28.327

(5, 52)

0.3081

(0.1667, 0.5000)

14.202

(6, 22)

     

Passive

26.933

(5, 52)

0.3068

(0.1667, 0.4500)

12.519

(2, 22)

     

d=1

23.841

(4, 48)

0.3055

(0.1579, 0.5238)

10.474

(7, 11)

aThe mortality rate µA is randomly drawn from a Beta(3, 7) distribution at the beginning of each replication and remains constant throughout that replication. This provides results averaged over the prior distribution used.

bActive indicates that translocations were made according to the optimal active adaptive strategy, Passive indicates optimal passive adaptive management, while d = 1 allocates one individual to each site during each time step.


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