Ecological Archives A019-050-A1

Joshua M. Malt and David B. Lank. 2009. Marbled Murrelet nest predation risk in managed forest landscapes: dynamic fragmentation effects at multiple scales. Ecological Applications 19:1274–1287.

Appendix A. Description of candidate model sets for predicting simulated nest disturbance, predicting predator abundance, and comparing patterns.

TABLE A1. Candidate model set for predicting simulated nest disturbance.

#

Model

Hypothesis categories

1

edge prox. + edge type + edge prox.*edge type

1,a

2

% old-growth

1,b

3

% clearcut

1,b

4

% regenerating

1,b

5

% immature

1,b

6

fragmentation

1,b

7

patch size

1,b

8

region

2

9

region + edge prox. + edge type

2,a

10

region + edge prox. + edge type + edge prox.*edge type

2,a

11

region + edge prox. + edge type + % old-growth

2a,b

12

region + edge prox. + edge type + % clearcut

2a,b

13

region + edge prox. + edge type + % regenerating

2a,b

14

region + edge prox. + edge type + % immature

2a,b

15

region + edge prox. + edge type + fragmentation

2a,b

16

region + edge prox. + edge type + patch size

2a,b

17

region + edge prox. + edge type + region*edge prox.

2a,b

18

region + edge prox. + edge type + region*edge type

2a,b

19

region + edge prox. + edge type + location*edge type + % + old-growth

2a,b

20

region + edge prox. + edge type + location*edge type + % + clearcut

2a,b

21

region + edge prox. + edge type + location*edge type + % + regenerating

2a,b

22

region + edge prox. + edge type + location*edge type + % + immature

2a,b

23

region + edge prox. + edge type + % old-growth + % old-growth*region

3a,b

24

region + edge prox. + edge type + % clearcut + % clearcut*region

3a,b

25

region + edge prox. + edge type + fragmentation + fragmentation*region

3a,b

26

region + edge prox. + edge type + patch size + patch size*region

3a,b

27

% old-growth + region + % old-growth*region

3,b

28

% clearcut + region + % clearcut*region

3,b

29

fragmentation + region + fragmentation*region

3,b

30

patch size + region + patch size*region

3,b

31

region + edge prox. + edge type + % old-growth + fragmentation + % clearcut +
patch size + % regenerating + % immature + edge prox.*edge type +
region*edge prox. + region*edge type + % old-growth*region +
fragmentation*region + % clearcut*region + patch size

1,2,3,a,b

32

null

n/a

† All models (except null) include nest-type, camera, and elevation variables.

‡ 1 = no regional effects; 2 = regional effects; 3 = regional interactions; a = patch-scale effects; b = landscape-scale effects.

 

TABLE A2. Candidate model set for comparison of patterns between real and simulated nests.

#

Model

Hypothesis categories

1

edge type

1a

2

% old-growth

1b

3

fragmentation

1b

4

% clearcuts

1b

5

patch size

1b

6

% regenerating

1b

7

% immature

1b

8

elevation

1c

9

elevation + edge type

1a,c

10

elevation + % old-growth

1b,c

11

elevation + fragmentation

1b,c

12

elevation + % clearcuts

1b,c

13

elevation + patch size

1b,c

14

elevation + % regenerating

1b,c

15

elevation + % immature

1b,c

16

nest category

2

17

edge type + nest category

2a

18

nest category + % old-growth

2b

19

nest category + fragmentation

2b

20

nest category + % clearcuts

2b

21

nest category + patch size

2b

22

nest category + % regenerating

2b

23

nest category + % immature

2b

24

edge type + nest category + % old-growth

2a,b

25

edge type + nest category + fragmentation

2a,b

26

edge type + nest category + % clearcuts

2a,b

27

edge type + nest category + patch size

2a,b

28

edge type + nest category + % regenerating

2a,b

29

edge type + nest category + % immature

2a,b

30

nest category + elevation

2c

31

elevation + edge type + nest category

2a,c

32

elevation + nest category + % old-growth

2b,c

33

elevation + nest category + fragmentation

2b,c

34

elevation + nest category + % clearcuts

2b,c

35

elevation + nest category + patch size

2b,c

36

elevation + nest category + % regenerating

2b,c

37

elevation + nest category + % immature

2b,c

38

elevation + edge type + nest category + % old-growth

2a,b,c

39

elevation + edge type + nest category + fragmentation

2a,b,c

40

elevation + edge type + nest category + % clearcuts

2a,b,c

41

elevation + edge type + nest category + patch size

2a,b,c

42

elevation + edge type + nest category + % regenerating

2a,b,c

43

elevation + edge type + nest category + % immature

2a,b,c

44

edge type + nest category + nest category*edge type

3a

45

nest category + % old-growth + nest category*% old-growth

3b

46

nest category + fragmentation + nest category*fragmentation

3b

47

nest category + % clearcuts + nest category*% clearcuts

3b

48

nest category + patch size + nest category*patch size

3b

49

nest category + % regenerating + nest category*% regenerating

3b

50

nest category + % immature + nest category*% immature

3b

51

edge type + nest category + % old-growth + nest category*% old-growth

3a,b

52

edge type + nest category + fragmentation + nest category*fragmentation

3a,b

53

edge type + nest category + % clearcuts + nest category*% clearcuts

3a,b

54

edge type + nest category + patch size + nest category*patch size

3a,b

55

edge type + nest category + % regenerating + nest category*% regenerating

3a,b

56

edge type + nest category + % immature + nest category*% immature

3a,b

57

elevation + nest category + nest category*elevation

3c

58

elevation + edge type + nest category + nest category*edge type

3a,c

59

elevation + nest category + % old-growth + nest category*% old-growth

3b,c

60

elevation + nest category + fragmentation + nest category*fragmentation

3b,c

61

elevation + nest category + % clearcuts + nest category*% clearcuts

3b,c

62

elevation + nest category + patch size + nest category*patch size

3b,c

63

elevation + nest category + % regenerating + nest category*% regenerating

3b,c

64

elevation + nest category + % immature + nest category*% immature

3b,c

65

elevation + edge type + nest category + % old-growth + nest category*% old-growth

3a,b,c

66

elevation + edge type + nest category + fragmentation + nest category*fragmentation

3a,b,c

67

elevation + edge type + nest category + % clearcuts + nest category*% clearcuts

3a,b,c

68

elevation + edge type + nest category + patch size + nest category*patch size

3a,b,c

69

elevation + edge type + nest category + % regenerating + nest category*% regenerating

3a,b,c

70

elevation + edge type + nest category + % immature + nest category*% immature

3a,b,c

† 1 = neither rates nor patterns of nest fates differ between real and simulated nests; 2 = absolute rates of nest fates differ between real and simulated nests, but patterns do not; 3 = both rates and patterns of nest fates differ between real and simulated nest; a = patch-scale effects; b = landscape-scale effects; c = elevation effect.

 

TABLE A3. Candidate model set for predicting detections of potential nest predators.

#

Model

Hypothesis categories

1

edge type

1,a

2

% old-growth

1,b

3

% clearcut

1,b

4

% regenerating

1,b

5

% immature

1,b

6

fragmentation

1,b

7

Region

2

8

region + edge type

2,a

9

region + edge type + % old-growth

2,a,b

10

region + edge type + % clearcut

2,a,b

11

region + edge type + % regenerating

2,a,b

12

region + edge type + % immature

2,a,b

13

region + edge type + fragmentation

2,a,b

14

region + edge type + % old-growth + % clearcut + % regenerating

2,a,b

15

region + edge type + fragmentation + % clearcut + % regenerating

2,a,b

16

region + edge type + region*edge type

3,a

17

region + edge type + % old-growth + % old-growth*region

3,a,b

18

region + edge type + % clearcut + % clearcut*region

3,a,b

19

region + edge type + % regenerating + % regenerating*region

3,a,b

20

region + edge type + % immature + % immature*region

3,a,b

21

region + edge type + fragmentation + fragmentation*region

3,a,b

† All models include elevation.

‡ 1 = no regional effects; 2 = regional effects; 3 = regional interactions; a = patch-scale effects; b = landscape-scale effects.


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