Ecological Archives A020-005-A3

P. C. Cross, E. K. Cole, A. P. Dobson, W. H. Edwards, K. L. Hamlin, G. Luikart, A. D. Middleton, B. M. Scurlock, and P. J. White. 2010. Probable causes of increasing brucellosis in free-ranging elk of the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem. Ecological Applications 20:278–288.

Appendix C. Graphs showing simulated brucellosis seroprevalence in native winter range elk under a range of different parameter values and a comparison of empirical and simulated elk age distributions.

 

   FIG. C1. Simulated brucellosis seroprevalence in native winter range elk under a range of different parameter values. Points represent results from deterministic simulations of random parameter sets. Solid red line represents the least squares regression. Dashed lines represent quantile regressions of the 5th, 25th, 75th and 95th quantiles. All regressions were based upon 2000 simulations, but only 750 points are shown.


 

 
   FIG. C2. A comparison of empirical and simulated elk age distributions. Dashed lines represent annual hunter kills from Gardiner, Montana 1996 to 2003. The red squares, green triangles, and blue diamonds are the stable age distributions from the simulation model using the low, baseline and high survival and reproduction estimates in Appendix A.

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