Ecological Archives A021-049-A2

Melannie D. Hartman, Emily R. Merchant, William J. Parton, Myron P. Gutmann, Susan M. Lutz, and Stephen A. Williams. 2011. Impact of historical land-use changes on greenhouse gas exchange in the U.S. Great Plains, 1883–2003. Ecological Applications 21:1105–1119.

Appendix B (TABLE B1). Model performance measures comparing model crop-yield predictions (pi) against crop-yield observations (oi) by county, where i = simulation years 1900 to 2003, and pi and oi are the county’s mean predicted and observed values, respectively, for the year.  R2, intercept, and slope are results of a linear regression; MAE, mean absolute error; RMSE, root mean square error; and ME, model efficiency.  Results from the sample county simulations as well as the validation county simulations are shown, grouped by dryland and irrigated crops.

DRYLAND CROPS
Sample Counties Crop R2 Slope Intercept MAE RMSE ME Validation Counties R2 Slope Intercept MAE RMSE ME
Baca, CO  Corn 0.42 0.49 26.65 20.13 29.26 0.41 Prowers, CO 0.91 0.36 23.91 28.76 48.23 0.34
Cherry, NE  Corn 0.81 1.14 -4.09 17.54 24.00 0.66              
Cheyenne, NE  Corn 0.61 0.70 7.76 22.98 28.98 0.52 Morrill, NE 0.28 0.51 24.23 31.85 42.45 -0.11
Chouteau, MT  Corn 0.00 -0.02 30.61 28.16 35.29 -1.45 Hill, MT 0.47 1.36 -13.77 32.48 42.02 -1.39
Dunn, ND  Corn 0.63 0.74 -0.46 27.00 33.75 0.42 Mountrail, ND 0.73 1.48 -32.24 29.53 33.87 -0.04
Hamilton, NE  Corn 0.79 0.80 0.15 35.05 44.29 0.71 Merrick, NE 0.58 0.68 39.58 32.32 42.57 0.56
Kingsbury, SD  Corn 0.75 0.90 3.48 34.03 48.84 0.70 Clark, SD 0.59 0.74 51.92 46.44 63.65 0.46
Logan, KS  Corn 0.55 0.74 27.03 34.57 45.10 0.48 Thomas, KS 0.37 0.46 66.90 35.61 47.16 0.35
Lyman, SD  Corn 0.82 1.12 6.71 21.45 28.55 0.61 Hughes, SD 0.77 0.73 0.74 21.16 27.18 0.63
Weld, CO  Corn 0.53 0.91 -9.01 24.97 30.39 -0.01 Laramie, WY 0.61 1.13 -11.13 18.21 21.75 0.16
Yuma, CO  Corn 0.79 1.05 -3.88 16.67 21.81 0.71 Phillips, CO 0.81 1.05 -16.59 22.17 26.16 0.65
 
Dunn, ND  Wheat 0.51 1.02 -6.83 17.65 21.57 -0.08 Mountrail, ND 0.60 1.39 -10.99 20.72 31.91 -0.56
Johnson, WY  Wheat 0.21 1.10 -2.04 20.25 25.14 -3.51 Sheridan, WY 0.26 1.69 -16.32 32.75 38.67 -9.83
Kingsbury, SD  Wheat 0.70 1.45 -11.36 23.47 34.32 -0.41 Clark, SD 0.70 1.45 -19.19 18.69 29.22 -0.12
Ramsey, ND  Wheat 0.25 0.97 -2.13 31.54 38.37 -1.91 Cavalier, ND 0.37 0.77 2.90 24.90 32.64 -0.26
Chouteau, MT  Wheat 0.58 1.35 -16.22 26.69 34.02 -0.59 Hill, MT 0.56 1.52 -11.70 34.24 43.38 -2.07
Curry, NM  Wheat 0.20 0.58 36.00 21.73 29.77 -1.35 Quay, NM 0.20 0.43 35.60 17.91 23.47 -0.67
Dewey, OK  Wheat 0.48 0.89 8.19 16.93 22.34 0.13 Woodward, OK 0.14 0.33 51.35 18.04 23.23 -0.16
Hamilton, NE  Wheat 0.50 1.11 0.56 30.78 37.42 -0.37 Merrick, NE 0.19 0.92 27.09 34.52 41.91 -3.94
Logan, KS  Wheat 0.25 0.51 27.87 26.98 34.84 -0.08 Thomas, KS 0.01 -0.14 91.62 40.55 46.79 -4.22
Pawnee, KS  Wheat 0.23 0.64 27.23 26.37 37.49 -0.49 Rush, KS 0.01 -0.11 100.32 27.53 36.16 -1.43
Baca, CO  Wheat 0.32 0.51 25.05 16.60 20.35 0.20 Prowers, CO 0.16 0.25 32.06 17.70 21.36 0.09
Boulder, CO  Wheat 0.17 0.71 35.54 28.58 40.94 -1.99 Larimer, CO 0.28 0.86 19.32 24.13 32.96 -1.13
Cheyenne, NE  Wheat 0.35 0.65 17.09 23.30 27.92 -0.05 Morrill, NE 0.21 0.63 23.14 27.09 31.53 -0.77
Haskell, TX  Wheat 0.53 1.31 7.06 27.44 34.03 -1.93 Knox, TX 0.31 0.67 19.10 12.97 19.35 -0.13
Hutchinson, TX  Wheat 0.17 0.62 40.97 29.36 34.89 -1.99 Hansford, TX 0.01 0.07 86.16 37.48 45.35 -4.16
Lyman, SD  Wheat 0.67 1.20 -4.01 23.94 29.96 0.15 Hughes, SD 0.62 0.51 1.73 x x x
Palo Pinto, TX  Wheat 0.03 0.16 79.56 27.23 34.91 -2.38 Jack, TX 0.06 0.20 76.69 21.90 28.50 -1.42
Yuma, CO  Wheat 0.65 1.06 -6.22 17.49 22.49 0.39 Phillips, CO 0.59 0.85 8.78 17.58 22.70 0.48
Weld, CO  Wheat 0.38 1.09 -11.25 23.24 32.47 -1.04 Laramie, WY 0.19 1.04 5.11 28.49 38.31 -3.83
 
Baca, CO  Sorghum 0.52 1.06 10.91 22.47 27.97 -0.43              
Curry, NM  Sorghum 0.43 0.69 27.44 20.48 29.10 0.23              
Hockley, TX  Sorghum 0.43 1.26 17.33 42.03 51.45 -3.37              
Hamilton, NE  Sorghum 0.24 0.38 101.79 32.26 40.41 0.03              
Haskell, TX  Sorghum 0.28 0.78 34.40 26.45 34.02 -1.34              
Yuma, CO  Sorghum 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00              
 
Haskell, TX  Cotton 0.67 2.87 -12.38 23.13 28.33 -21.42              
Hockley, TX  Cotton 0.10 0.44 17.08 12.44 15.80 -1.02              
Palo Pinto, TX  Cotton 0.37 0.97 1.99 4.98 7.26 -0.72              
 
Baca, CO  Hay 0.02 0.18 83.31 51.35 60.30 -1.77              
Boulder, CO  Hay 0.04 0.28 91.55 64.58 79.84 -1.75              
Cherry, NE  Hay 0.53 0.93 8.85 14.75 19.41 0.22              
Chouteau, MT  Hay 0.50 1.20 -23.26 30.25 38.05 -0.51              
Dewey, OK  Hay 0.32 1.25 -12.68 51.14 72.38 -2.86              
Dunn, ND  Hay 0.44 0.97 2.98 29.26 39.08 -0.21              
Haskell, TX  Hay 0.03 0.20 118.47 72.41 88.98 -0.95              
Hockley, TX  Hay 0.33 0.50 4.65 86.67 100.61 -1.91              
Hutchinson, TX  Hay 0.29 0.52 41.11 48.37 57.01 -0.08              
Johnson, WY  Hay 0.00 0.03 48.24 48.57 57.89 -2.69              
Kingsbury, SD  Hay 0.41 0.61 60.51 36.10 45.78 0.28              
Lyman, SD  Hay 0.41 0.75 30.13 24.48 32.18 -0.07              
Palo Pinto, TX  Hay 0.21 0.52 66.25 41.44 51.47 -0.27              
Ramsey, ND  Hay 0.18 0.84 31.20 49.99 62.18 -2.40              
Yuma, CO  Hay 0.07 0.35 86.54 55.88 74.88 -1.13              
IRRIGATED CROPS
Sample Counties Crop R2 Slope Intercept MAE RMSE ME Validation Counties R2 Slope Intercept MAE RMSE ME
Baca, CO  Corn 0.87 0.73 88.71 34.89 43.06 0.83 Prowers, CO 0.73 0.64 134.68 59.80 78.01 0.54
Boulder, CO  Corn 0.71 0.76 89.07 30.71 36.57 0.61 Larimer, CO 0.92 0.74 85.19 38.16 47.88 0.85
Cherry, NE  Corn 0.60 0.71 153.45 61.15 70.34 -0.50              
Cheyenne, NE  Corn 0.76 0.96 0.78 32.53 41.67 0.68 Morrill, NE 0.52 0.75 55.29 43.34 48.89 0.35
Curry, NM  Corn 0.89 0.92 21.65 37.56 45.77 0.89 Quay, NM 0.35 0.70 187.44 123.03 173.34 -0.90
Hamilton, NE  Corn 0.89 1.02 7.66 27.12 39.05 0.86 Merrick, NE 0.81 1.19 -18.07 47.21 60.09 0.46
Hutchinson, TX  Corn 0.12 0.38 221.57 54.42 69.36 -0.77              
Logan, KS  Corn 0.29 0.64 132.46 48.26 69.38 -0.20 Thomas, KS 0.53 0.40 218.74 50.57 67.22 0.46
Weld, CO  Corn 0.77 0.75 124.91 51.71 62.50 0.46 Laramie, WY 0.80 0.72 130.64 73.78 83.04 0.00
Pawnee, KS  Corn 0.68 1.10 -33.94 40.34 53.96 0.43 Rush, KS 0.46 0.41 229.36 64.24 81.15 0.12
Yuma, CO  Corn 0.81 1.00 57.25 61.10 77.77 0.51              
 
Baca, CO  Wheat 0.81 1.06 -14.45 19.08 24.61 0.69 Prowers, CO 0.83 1.19 -35.68 21.81 27.72 0.50
Curry, NM  Wheat 0.10 0.24 110.63 25.13 31.81 -0.52 Quay, NM 0.19 -0.44 173.13 55.92 64.47 -9.60
Hutchinson, TX  Wheat 0.13 0.51 70.27 43.96 54.61 -1.14 Hansford, TX 0.00 0.01 142.96 46.97 58.51 -2.34
Cheyenne, NE  Wheat 0.64 1.23 -29.72 27.54 34.71 0.10 Morrill, NE 0.43 1.34 -59.77 49.71 62.83 -1.69
Haskell, TX  Wheat 0.08 0.33 54.86 25.98 33.03 -0.79 Knox, TX 0.02 0.10 74.21 35.25 43.32 -1.18
Johnson, WY  Wheat 0.04 -0.15 57.24 53.96 69.33 -3.37 Sheridan, WY 0.17 1.12 -23.14 29.23 31.11 -6.18
 
Curry, NM  Sorghum 0.29 0.51 115.97 41.29 53.60 0.08              
Hockley, TX  Sorghum 0.23 0.44 78.47 26.61 33.93 0.04              
Hutchinson, TX  Sorghum 0.28 0.55 99.39 31.47 37.51 -0.01              
Logan, KS  Sorghum 0.21 0.45 162.57 49.88 59.53 -1.75              
Baca, CO  Sorghum 0.72 1.11 -8.11 28.73 35.81 0.51              
Haskell, TX  Sorghum 0.19 0.26 108.08 19.55 22.96 0.04              
Pawnee, KS  Sorghum 0.11 0.47 157.58 44.10 56.50 -2.10              
Yuma, CO  Sorghum 0.08 -0.18 270.33 83.83 93.79 -6.74              
 
Hockley, TX  Cotton 0.01 0.10 50.06 16.41 22.03 -0.66              
Haskell, TX  Cotton 0.03 0.08 64.69 24.84 35.74 -0.09              
 
Boulder, CO  Alfalfa 0.55 0.79 82.82 39.68 52.09 0.26              
Cherry, NE  Alfalfa 0.93 0.99 30.13 40.79 51.79 0.89              
Cheyenne, NE  Alfalfa 0.33 0.48 184.01 46.12 56.30 0.17              
 
Johnson, WY  Alfalfa/Hay 0.14 0.51 100.72 43.65 58.16 -0.86              
Pawnee, KS  Alfalfa/Hay 0.02 0.16 250.40 83.79 108.41 -1.34              
 
Weld, CO  Alfalfa 0.46 0.60 166.08 61.88 77.11 0.31              
Yuma, CO  Alfalfa 0.06 0.31 290.68 95.30 110.96 -3.36              
OTHER CROPS
Sample Counties Crop R2 Slope Intercept MAE RMSE ME              
Palo Pinto, TX  Oats 0.62 1.83 -27.80 15.98 18.71 -1.87              
Boulder, CO  Sugar Beets 0.59 0.61 124.13 34.84 39.27 0.50              
Weld, CO  Sugar Beets 0.24 0.68 105.45 70.27 91.63 -0.61              
Weld, CO  Potatoes 0.24 0.28 149.20 70.02 88.02 0.22              
Hamilton, NE  Soybeans 0.64 1.17 -21.84 12.28 14.92 0.21              
Cheyenne, NE  Dry Beans 0.42 0.37 51.53 8.52 9.97 0.39              
Boulder, CO  Barley 0.83 1.03 4.46 15.88 20.42 0.75              
Weld, CO  Barley 0.36 0.39 79.16 26.15 31.75 -0.33              
 
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