Ecological Archives A022-121-A3

Julia L. Moore, Song Liang, Adam Akullian, Justin V. Remais. 2012. Cautioning the use of degree-day models for climate change projections in the presence of parametric uncertainty. Ecological Applications 22:2237–2247.

Appendix C. Figures showing historical Oncomelania hupensis presence, location of cells for individual cell analysis, representative model output, sensitivity of time of first population peak to changes in δmin and K, and sensitivity of future O. hupensis distributions to changes in δmin and K.


FIG. C1. County level data of historical Oncomelania hupensis presence (shaded regions) and absence (white regions) in Sichuan Province.



FIG. C2. Locations of the six cells chosen for the small-scale sensitivity analysis.



FIG. C3. Representative three-year and twelve-year population model output. (A) Representative variation in model output (i.e., mean snail density) from the 73 parameter sets selected in the fitting procedure. Variation is shown at a cell fit to historical snail presence (left), and a cell fit to historical snail absence (right). (B) Simulated mean snail density from all 73 parameter sets using twelve years of looped contemporary temperature data as input, indicating that model equilibrium is generally achieved within the first three years of the simulation.



FIG. C4. Time of first population peak given changes in δmin and K. Percent deviation from baseline time of first population peak given changes in δmin and K at two representative locations (Fig. C2) within Sichuan Province. Red colors indicate a value greater than the baseline case, while blue colors indicate a value less than the baseline case. Baseline simulations were run using parameter values of S0 = 22.642, μ = 0.0049, β = 0.4648, α = 0.0195, κ = 4.4672, δopt = 23.08, δmin = 8.5, and K = 1440. Percent changes in δmin and K are given along the y- and x-axes, respectively.




FIG. C5. Predicted future O. hupensis distributions given changes in dmin (A) and K (B). Color indicates mean snail density, while outlined region indicates areas of snail presence determined using a minimum snail density of seven.

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