Ecological Archives E087-060-A1

Erin Muths, Rick D. Scherer, Paul Stephen Corn, and Brad A. Lambert. 2006. Estimation of temporary emigration in male toads. Ecology 87:1048–1056.

Appendix A. A complete list of models in the candidate set and model selection results.

LOST LAKE

         

Model

QAICc

Delta QAICc

QAICc Weights

Num. Par

Q Deviance*

{(FYE), ' (0), " (0), Mt+b, N(t), No temporary emigration}

-818.65

0

0.199

49

375.223

{(FYE), ' (.), " (.), Mt+b, N(t), Markovian emigration}

-818.11

0.5396

0.152

51

371.287

{(FYE), ' (.) = " (.), Mt+b, N(t), Random emigration}

-817.62

1.03

0.119

50

374.018

{(FYE), ' (SWE) =" (SWE), Mt+b, N(t), Random emigration}

-817.43

1.219

0.108

51

371.967

{(FYE), ' (AP) =" (AP), Mt+b, N(t), Random emigration}

-817.34

1.3108

0.103

51

372.059

{(FYE), ' (meltout) =" (meltout), Mt+b, N(t), Random emigration }

-816.23

2.4188

0.059

51

373.166

{(FYE),  ' (Ta) = " (Ta), Mt+b, N(t), Random emigration}

-815.68

2.9748

0.045

51

373.722

{(FYE), ' (AP), " (AP), Mt+b, N(t), Markovian emigration}

-815.48

3.1701

0.040

53

369.422

{(FYE), ' (AP + SWE) = " (AP + SWE), Mt+b, N(t), Random emigration}

-815.22

3.4339

0.035

52

371.936

{(FYE), ' (SWE + Ta) =" (SWE + Ta), Mt+b, N(t), Random emigration}

-815.19

3.4581

0.035

52

371.960

{(FYE), ' (AP + Ta) =" (AP + Ta), Mt+b, N(t), Random emigration}

-815.15

3.4983

0.034

52

372.001

{(FYE), ' (meltout + AP) = " (meltout + AP), Mt+b, N(t), Random emigration}

-815.11

3.5411

0.033

52

372.044

{(FYE), ' (meltout + Ta) =" (meltout + Ta), Mt+b, N(t), Random emigration}

-813.12

5.5278

0.012

52

374.030

{(FYE),' (meltout + AP + Ta) =" (meltout + AP + Ta), Mt+b, N(t), Random emigration}

-813.06

5.591

0.012

53

371.843

{(FYE), ' (t) = " (t), Mt+b, N(t), Random emigration}

-811.27

7.3794

0.004

56

366.849

{(FYE), ' (t), " (t), Mt+b, N(t), Markovian emigration}

-808.74

9.9084

0.001

60

360.262

{(FYE), ' (0) = " (0), Mt, N(t), No temporary emigration}

-807.57

11.081

0.0007

41

404.001

{(FYE), ' (t), " (t), Mt, N(t), Markovian emigration}

-802.19

16.4611

0.00005

52

384.963

{(FYE), ' (0), " (0), Mb, N(t), No temporary emigration}

-615.53

203.122

0

26

628.376

{(FYE), '(t), " (t), Mb, N(t), Markovian emigration }

-596.49

222.164

0

37

623.813


KETTLE TARN

         

Model

QAICc

Delta QAICc

QAICc Weights

Num. Par

Q Deviance*

{(1996 + FYE), " (Ta + AP + meltout) =' (Ta + AP + meltout), Mt, N(t), Random emigration}

-64.0154

0

0.677

50

-172.376

{(1996 + FYE), " (Ta + meltout) = ' (Ta + meltout), Mt, N(t), Random emigration}

-61.4117

2.6037

0.184

49

-167.431

{(1996 + FYE), " (Ta + SWE) =' (Ta + SWE), Mt, N(t), Random emigration}

-58.5969

5.4185

0.045

49

-164.616

{(1996 + FYE), " (t) =' (t), Mt, N(t), Random emigration}

-58.1846

5.8308

0.036

53

-173.614

{(1996 + FYE), " (Ta + AP + meltout),' (Ta + AP + meltout), Mt, N(t), Markovian emigration}

-57.2582

6.7572

0.023

54

-175.060

{(1996 + FYE), " (0), ' (0), Mt, N(t), No  temporary emigration}

-55.2185

8.7969

0.008

46

-154.260

{(1996 + FYE), " (.)  = ' (.), Mt, N(t), Random emigration}

-54.7905

9.2249

0.006

47

-156.151

{(1996 + FYE), " (SWE) = ' (SWE), Mt, N(t), Random emigration}

-53.3676

10.6478

0.003

48

-157.053

{(1996 + FYE), " (Ta) = ' (Ta), Mt, N(t), Random emigration}

-52.642

11.3734

0.002

48

-156.328

{(1996 + FYE), " (AP) = ' (AP), Mt, N(t), Random emigration}

-52.5576

11.4578

0.002

48

-156.243

{(1996+ FYE), " (SWE + meltout) =' (SWE + meltout), Mt, N(t), Random emigration}

-52.4081

11.6073

0.002

49

-158.427

{(1996 + FYE), " (.), ' (.), Mt, N(t), Markovian emigration}

-52.2731

11.7423

0.001

48

-155.959

{(1996 + FYE), " (meltout) = gamma' (meltout), Mt, N(t), Random emigration}

-52.2121

11.8033

0.001

48

-155.898

{(1996 + FYE), " (AP + Ta + meltout),  =gamma' (AP + Ta+ meltout), Mt +b, N(t), Random emigration}

-51.3964

12.619

0.001

58

-178.765

{(1996 + FYE), " (SWE + AP) =gamma' (SWE + AP), Mt, N(t), Random emigration}

-51.0698

12.9456

0.001

49

-157.089

{(1996 + FYE), " (Ta + AP) = ' (Ta + AP), Mt, N(t), Random emigration}

-50.4005

13.6149

0.0007

49

-156.420

{(1996 + FYE), " (AP + meltout) =' (AP + meltout), Mt, N(t), Random emigration}

-50.3726

13.6428

0.0007

49

-156.392

{(1996 + FYE), " (t), ' (t), Mt, N(t), Markovian emigration}

-46.4467

17.5687

0.0001

57

-171.411

{(1996 + FYE), " (t), ' (t), Mt +b, N(t), Markovian emigration}

-37.3209

26.6945

0

65

-181.741

{(1996 + FYE), " (t), ' (t), Mb, N(t) Markovian emigration}

35.5994

99.6148

0

31

-29.5548



DENNY CREEK

         

Model

QAICc

Delta QAICc

QAICc Weights

Num. Par

Q Deviance*

{(.),  " =  ' = 0, Mt, N(t), No temporary emigration}

-16.881

0

0.192

28

303.747

{(.),  "(.) =  '(.), Mt, N(t), Random emigration}

-16.258

0.6228

0.140

29

302.153

{(FYE),  " = ' = 0, Mt, N(t), No temporary emigration}

-15.771

1.1098

0.110

29

302.64

{(.),  " (SWE) = ' (SWE), Mt, N(t), Random emigration}

-14.816

2.0651

0.068

30

301.369

{(.),  " (meltout) = ' (meltout), Mt, N(t), Random emigration}

-14.661

2.2194

0.063

30

301.524

{(.),  "(.),  '(.), Mt, N(t), Markovian emigration}

-14.361

2.5192

0.054

30

301.823

{(.),  " (Ta) =' (Ta), Mt, N(t), Random emigration}

-14.315

2.5655

0.053

30

301.870

{ (.)," (AP) =' (AP), Mt, N(t), Random emigration}

-14.148

2.7328

0.048

30

302.037

{(.), " (Ta + SWE) =' (Ta + SWE), Mt, N(t), Random emigration}

-13.463

3.4175

0.034

31

300.488

{(.), " (Ta + meltout) = ' (Ta + meltout), Mt, N(t), Random emigration}

-13.454

3.427

0.034

31

300.497

{(.), " (AP), ' (AP), Mt, N(t), Markovian emigration}

-12.828

4.0531

0.025

32

298.881

{(.), " (SWE + meltout) =' (SWE + meltout), Mt, N(t), Random emigration}

-12.614

4.2662

0.022

31

301.336

{(.), " (AP + SWE) =' (AP + SWE), Mt, N(t), Random emigration}

-12.594

4.2862

0.022

31

301.356

{(.), " (AP + meltout) =' (AP + meltout), Mt, N(t), Random emigration}

-12.428

4.4523

0.020

31

301.523

{(.), " (Ta + AP) =' (Ta + AP), Mt, N(t), Random emigration}

-12.208

4.6725

0.01857

31

301.743

{(.), " (meltout), ' (meltout), Mt, N(t), Markovian emigration}

-12.082

4.7983

0.01743

32

299.627

{(.), " (Ta),' (Ta), Mt, N(t), Markovian emigration}

-11.87

5.0109

0.01568

32

299.839

{(.), " (Ta + SWE + AP) =' (Ta + SWE + AP), Mt, N(t), Random emigration}

-11.231

5.6495

0.01139

32

300.478

{(.), " (SWE), ' (SWE), Mt, N(t), Markovian emigration}

-10.922

5.9585

0.00976

32

300.787

{(.), " (.) = ' (.), Mt+b, N(t), Random emigration}

-10.593

6.2881

0.00828

35

294.341

{(.), " (t) = ' (t), Mt, N(t), Random emigration}

-9.0071

7.8735

0.00375

33

300.452

{(.), " (meltout + SWE),' (meltout + SWE), Mt, N(t), Markovian emigration}

-8.7645

8.1161

0.00332

34

298.436

{(.), " (Ta + SWE),' (Ta + SWE), Mt, N(t,) Markovian emigration}

-8.6775

8.2031

0.00318

34

298.523

{(.), " (meltout + AP), ' (meltout + AP), Mt, N(t), Markovian emigration}

-8.46

8.4206

0.00285

34

298.74

{(.), " (AP + SWE),' (AP + SWE), Mt, N(t), Markovian emigration}

-8.46

8.4206

0.00285

34

298.74

{(FYE), " (t) =' (t), Mt, N(t), Random emigration}

-8.2542

8.6264

0.00257

34

298.946

{(.), " (meltout + Ta), ' (meltout + Ta), Mt, N(t), Markovian emigration}

-7.8948

8.9858

0.00215

34

299.305

{(.), " (AP + Ta),' (AP + Ta), Mt, N(t), Markovian emigration}

-7.8948

8.9858

0.00215

34

299.305

{(.), " (t), ' (t), Mt, N(t),Markovian emigration}

-6.8666

10.014

0.00128

35

298.067

{(FYE), " (t), ' (t), Mt, N(t), Markovian emigration}

-6.3526

10.528

0.00099

36

296.305

{(t + FYE),  " (.) =  ' (.), Mt+b, N(t), Random emigration}

-5.95

10.931

0.00081

40

287.522

{(t + FYE), " (t) = ’ (t), Mt, N(t), Random emigration}

-4.7172

12.163

0.00044

38

293.365

{(.), " (AP + SWE + Ta),' (AP + SWE+Ta), Mt, N(t), Markovian emigration}

-4.3448

12.536

0.00036

36

298.313

{(t), " (t) = ' (t), Mt, N(t), Random emigration}

-2.1623

14.718

0.00012

37

298.212

{ (t + FYE), " (t) = ' (t), Mt, N(t), Markovian emigration}

-0.5897

16.291

0.00006

40

292.882

{(t), " (t), ' (t), Mt, N(t), Markovian emigration}

0.7523

17.633

0.00003

39

296.534

{(t + FYE), " (t), ' (t), Mt+b, N(t), Markovian emigration}

2.2619

19.143

0.00001

46

281.695

{(t + FYE), " (t), ' (t), Mtb with p (last) = p (2nd last), N(t), Markovian emigration}

5.9215

22.802

0

49

278.215

{(t + FYE), " (t), ' (t), Mb, N(t), Markovian emigration}

35.077

51.958

0

31

349.028

{(t), " (t), ' (t), Mb, N(t), Markovian emigration}

36.008

52.889

0

30

352.193

*QDeviance = -2loglikelihood /



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