Appendix A. Figures presenting the aphid, predator, temperature, and nitrogen data from each field and year, with estimated conditional aphid distributions given maximum-likelihood parameters.
Each of the following 18 figures shows data and aphid model predictions for one field. Each figure includes six sub-figures. The aphid figures (upper left) show aphids on a log-plus-one scale for nymphs (circles) and adults (triangles). The conditional distributions (conditioned on all the data) of the model aphid population given the maximum-likelihood parameters are shown by red (nymph) and green (adult) boxplots. Each boxplot contains a rectangle extending from the 25th to the 75 percentiles, with the 50th percentile (median) shown as a horizontal line in the rectangle. The lower and upper extremes of each boxplot, connected to the rectangle by a vertical line, show the 5th and 95th percentiles. Asterisks show the one-step-ahead mean model prediction given the preceding data.
The remaining figures show predator, temperature, plant nitrogen, and spider mite data. For plots showing two variables, there are two vertical axes, shown on the left and right sides and corresponding by color (blue circles or orange triangles) to one of the data series. The title of each temperature plot gives the location of the temperature record used for that site. The last two digits ("93" or "94") of each site name indicate the year (1993 and 1994, respectively) of data collection.