Ecological Archives E090-082-A1

Karen C. Abbott, Jörgen Ripa, and Anthony R. Ives. 2009. Environmental variation in ecological communities and inferences from single-species data. Ecology 90:1268–1278.

Appendix A. Autoregressive (AR) and autoregressive moving average (ARMA) models fitted to 50 different data sets from diverse taxa.

TABLE A1. AR and ARMA models fitted to data. T is the length of the time-series in years. The model with the lower AICC is the model best supported by the data and is shown in bold. Cases in which an ARMA(n,n-1) model fitted best (including AR(1) models, which are equivalent to ARMA(1,0) models) are starred. Models with AR lags up to 4 and MA lags up to 3 were considered.

Species

T

Fitted AR model

Fitted ARMA model

Lepidopterans and other insects

     

Gypsy moth

Lymantria dispar

83

AR(1)

ARMA(1,2)

Nun moth

Lymantria monacha

42

AR(3)

ARMA(1,1)

Pine looper moth

Bupalus piniaria

60

AR(2)

ARMA(2,3)

Larch budmoth

Zeiraphera diniana

38

AR(4)

ARMA(2,2)

Pine hawkmoth

Hyloicus pinastri

50

AR(4)

ARMA(2,2)

Pine-tree lappet

Dendrolimus pini

60

AR(2)

ARMA(1,3)

Desert locust

Schistocerca gregaria

112

AR(3)

ARMA(1,2)

         

Other invertebrates

     

California spiny lobster

Panulirus interruptus

63

AR(2)

ARMA(1,1)

Dungeness crab

Cancer magister

43

AR(2)

ARMA(2,1)*

Pink abalone

Haliotis corrugata

37

AR(1)*

ARMA(1,1)

Red abalone

Haliotis rufescens

66

AR(1)*

ARMA(1,1)

         

Mammals

     

Snowshoe hare

Lepus americanus

57

AR(4)

ARMA(2,2)

Muskrat

Ondatra zibethica

71

AR(2)

ARMA(1,3)

Mink

Mustela vison

144

AR(3)

ARMA(2,2)

Weasel

Mustela spp.

42

AR(1)

ARMA(4,3)*

Grey-sided vole

Clethrionomys rufocanus

46

AR(2)

ARMA(2,1)

Beaver

Castor canadensis

101

AR(3)

ARMA(3,3)

Badger

Taxidea taxus

66

AR(1)*

ARMA(1,1)

North American deer

Cervidae spp.

110

AR(3)

ARMA(3,2)*

Raccoon

Procyon lotor

132

AR(2)

ARMA(1,1)

Black bear

Ursus americanus

51

AR(1)*

ARMA(1,1)

Polar bear

Ursus maritimus

51

AR(1)*

ARMA(1,1)

Coyote

Canis latrans

51

AR(2)

ARMA(2,1)*

Arctic fox

Alopex lagopus

51

AR(3)

ARMA(3,1)

Canadian lynx

Lynx canadensis

63

AR(4)

ARMA(4,2)

Bobcat

Lynx rufus

51

AR(1)*

ARMA(1,2)

River otter

Lutra canadensis

157

AR(4)

ARMA(1,2)

Sea lion

Otariidae spp.

42

AR(1)*

ARMA(1,1)

         

Birds

     

Blue jay

Cyanocitta cristata

53

AR(1)*

ARMA(1,1)

Common crow

Corvus brachyrhynchos

50

AR(1)*

ARMA(1,1)

Tree sparrow

Spizella arborea

53

AR(1)*

ARMA(1,1)

Dark-eyed junco

Junco hyemalis

53

AR(1)*

ARMA(1,1)

House wren

Troglodytes aedon

50

AR(1)*

ARMA(3,2)

Indigo bunting

Passerina cyanea

50

AR(1)*

ARMA(1,1)

Great crested flycatcher

Myiarchus crinitis

50

AR(1)*

ARMA(2,2)

Eurasian oystercatcher

Haematopus ostralegus

52

AR(1)*

ARMA(1,2)

Gray heron

Ardea cinerea

43

AR(2)

ARMA(3,2)

Ruddy duck

Oxyura jamaicensis

38

AR(1)

ARMA(3,3)

Bobwhite quail

Colinus virinianus

46

AR(1)*

ARMA(1,1)

Hazel grouse

Bonasa bonasia

41

AR(3)

ARMA(1,1)

Red grouse

Lagopus lagopus scoticus

77

AR(1)

ARMA(1,1)

Rock ptarmigan

Lagopus mutus

76

AR(2)

ARMA(1,1)

Red-bellied woodpecker

Melanerpes carolinus

40

AR(1)*

ARMA(1,1)

Marsh hawk

Circus cyaneus

51

AR(3)

ARMA(3,2)

Red-shouldered hawk

Buteo lineatus

49

AR(3)

ARMA(1,1)

Red-tailed hawk

Buteo jamaicensis

50

AR(1)

ARMA(2,1)*

Rough-legged hawk

Buteo lagopus

49

AR(1)*

ARMA(1,2)

         

Fish

     

Atlantic herring

Clupea harengus

41

AR(2)

ARMA(1,1)

Plaice

Pleuronectes platessa

35

AR(1)*

ARMA(1,2)

Haddock

Melanogrammus aeglefinus

60

AR(2)

ARMA(2,1)


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