Appendix A. Parameter estimates and figure of environmental variation.
TABLE A1. Parameter definitions.
λ_{0} |
Intercept for breeding performance (corresponding to individuals of age 1). |
c_{2} |
Age effect on breeding performance for 2 year old individuals relative to the intercept (in models with linear adult age effects). |
c_{2+} |
Age effect on breeding performance for individuals that are 2 years or older relative to the intercept (in models with constant adult age effects). |
c_{3} | Intercept for regression of age on breeding performance for adults relative to overall intercept λ_{0}. |
c_{r} |
Regression coefficient for the change in breeding performance with age for adults (in models with linear adult age effects). |
d_{B} | Regression coefficient for effect of the number of breeding pairs on breeding performance. |
τ_{I} | Standard deviation of individual random effects for breeding performance. |
τ_{E} | Standard deviation of environmental random effects for breeding performance. |
ρ | Correlation between individual random effects for survival and breeding performance. |
µ |
Intercept for survival (corresponding to individuals of age 1). |
a_{2} |
Age effect on survival for 2 year old individuals relative to the intercept (in models with linear adult age effects). |
a_{2+} |
Age effect on survival for individuals that are 2 years or older relative to the intercept (in models with constant adult age effects) . |
a_{3} | Intercept for regression of age on survival for adults relative to overall intercept µ. |
a_{r} |
Regression coefficient for the change in survival with age for adults (in models with linear adult age effects). |
d_{S} | Regression coefficient for effect of population size on survival. |
σ_{I} | Standard deviation of individual random effects for survival. |
σ_{E} | Standard deviation of environmental random effects for survival. |
TABLE A2. Posterior means and 95% HPD-intervals for parameters in the breeding models. The last two rows gives parameter estimates of two models under the alternative prior on the variance component. The models are defined in Table 1.
TABLE A3. Posterior means and 95% HPD-intervals for parameters in the survival models. The last two rows gives parameter estimates of two models under the alternative prior on the variance component. The models are defined in Table 2.
FIG. A1. Environmental variation in breeding performance and survival. Expected number of fledglings (a) and probability of survival (b) as a function of time. Estimates are computed for 2 year old individuals and with random effects and effects of standardised covariates set to zero. In (a) model 2 defined in Table 1 was used and in (b) model 11 defined in Table 2 was used.