*Ecological Archives* E093-216-A10

Sarah E. Diamond, Lauren M. Nichols, Neil McCoy, Christopher Hirsch, Shannon L. Pelini, Nathan J. Sanders, Aaron M. Ellison, Nicholas J. Gotelli, Robert R. Dunn. 2012. A physiological trait-based approach to predicting the responses of species to experimental climate warming. *Ecology* 93:2305–2312. http://dx.doi.org/10.1890/11-2296.1

Appendix J. A figure showing regressions of thermal accumulation slope (including standard errors) as functions of thermal tolerance and MaxEnt predictions.

Fig. J1. The predictive ability of thermal tolerance vs. species distribution models in ant responses to warming at high and low latitudes: thermal accumulation slope (the slope, β, of the linear relationship between ln(cumulative worker density) and Δc) as a function of (A,C) the critical thermal maximum (CTmax), and (B,D) MaxEnt prediction (the change in probability of occurrence across MaxEnt models based on current and future (2080) climate as defined by mean annual temperature) at (A,B) the low latitude site (Duke Forest), and (C,D) the high latitude site (Harvard Forest). Each point represents a single species; solid orange lines represent simple linear regressions, and dashed blue lines represent 95% confidence intervals.