*Ecological Archives* E094-217-A4

Tamar Lok, Otto Overdijk, Joost M. Tinbergen, Theunis Piersma. 2013. Seasonal variation in density dependence in age-specific survival of a long-distance migrant. *Ecology* 94:2358–2369. http://dx.doi.org/10.1890/12-1914.1

Appendix D. Population matrix model to predict population growth.

We investigated whether the estimated annual variation in survival, in combination with the estimated change in fidelity, could predict the observed pattern of population growth. For this, we used the shrunken estimates of age-specific survival from the best-supported random effects models per age class (N_{quad}, σ² for *S*_{0} and N_{lin}, σ² for *S*_{1}, *S*_{2} and *S*_{≥3}) and the maximum likelihood estimates of fidelity (estimates shown in Table B3). We applied the following pre-breeding census based age-structured population matrix model (Caswell 2001):

*N _{x}* reflects the number of female birds in age class

Literature cited

Caswell, H. 2001. Matrix population models: construction, analysis and interpretation, Second edition. Sinauer Associates, Sunderland, Massachusetts, USA.

Stubben, C., and B. Milligan. 2007. Estimating and analyzing demographic models using the popbio package in R. Journal of Statistical Software 22:1–23.

R Development Core Team. 2011. R: A language and environment for statistical computing. R Foundation for Statistical Computing, Vienna, Austria.