Ecological Archives M085-021-A3

Stephen J. Tulowiecki, Chris P. S. Larsen. 2015. Native American impact on past forest composition inferred from species distribution models, Chautauqua County, New York. Ecological Monographs 85:557–581. http://dx.doi.org/10.1890/14-2259.1

Appendix C. Model evaluations upon the training data.

Table C1. Model evaluations upon the training data, using the Area Under the Receiver Operating Characteristic Curve (AUC), and the True Skill Statistic (TSS). For each species, the mean (µ) statistic values for models that include (n = 4) and exclude (n = 4) NAVs are shown. Also shown are the results of paired t tests, which compare the change in evaluation statistics between models that include and exclude NAVs. Three asterisks (***) indicate significance at α = 0.01, two asterisks (**) indicate significance at α = 0.05, and one asterisk (*) indicates near-significance at α = 0.10.

Common name

µAUC
with NAVs

µAUC
without NAVs

p value

µTSS
with NAVS

µTSS
without NAVs

p value

Alder

0.96

0.95

0.022**

0.84

0.81

0.017**

Ash, black

0.89

0.89

0.382

0.65

0.64

0.136

Ash, white

0.81

0.77

0.062*

0.49

0.42

0.070*

Basswood

0.80

0.76

0.009***

0.46

0.40

0.010***

Beech

0.83

0.80

0.007***

0.53

0.45

0.010***

Birch, yellow

0.87

0.83

0.012**

0.64

0.54

0.008***

Cherry, black

0.89

0.84

0.049**

0.70

0.58

0.042**

Chestnut

0.92

0.86

0.025**

0.73

0.58

0.016**

Cucumber magnolia

0.85

0.81

0.035**

0.56

0.48

0.010**

Elm

0.79

0.75

0.005***

0.44

0.38

0.009***

Fir, balsam

0.97

0.98

0.259

0.87

0.88

0.430

Hemlock

0.77

0.74

0.052*

0.41

0.38

0.151

Hickory

0.93

0.88

0.008***

0.75

0.63

0.011**

Ironwood

0.93

0.88

0.185

0.84

0.71

0.184

Maple, red

0.92

0.91

0.344

0.74

0.72

0.254

Maple, sugar

0.84

0.80

0.001***

0.53

0.46

0.002***

Oak, black

0.91

0.84

0.013**

0.70

0.56

0.009***

Oak, white

0.95

0.89

0.033**

0.83

0.67

0.023**

Pine, white

0.90

0.86

0.005***

0.69

0.59

0.002***

Sycamore

0.96

0.96

0.583

0.87

0.86

0.621

Walnut, black

0.93

0.97

0.520

0.83

0.88

0.626

Walnut, white (butternut)

0.87

0.84

0.047**

0.62

0.54

0.030**

Whitewood

0.93

0.92

0.125

0.77

0.72

0.177


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